Demographics, Resources, and Solar Energy: Drivers of Africa's New Economy
10 min read
In recent years, numerous indicators have shown that African economies are undergoing rapid transformation. However, experts do not share the same interpretation of these developments: some, described as “Afro-optimists,” see the emergence of a dynamic continent with a promising future, while others, more “Afro-pessimists,” are concerned about the social and economic tensions linked to persistent inequalities. Energy issues—and solar development in particular—are central to this debate. Advances in electrification, technological innovations, and the rise of decentralized solutions offer new opportunities to support population growth, boost economic activity, and improve living conditions.
Here are some key points to help you better understand these dynamics.
© Thinkstock - One out of every four people on Earth will live in Africa in 2050 – a challenging situation, but one that offers fantastic potential. Here we see a marketplace in Jimma, Ethiopia.
Africa, a Driving Force Behind Global Demographics
The number of inhabitants remains a factor of for a country or group of countries, as exemplified by China, India, and Brazil. In Africa, the population will exceed 1.5 billion in 2026 (19% of the world's population) and, according to UN estimates, is expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, representing a quarter of the world's population. This will be young populations: according to UNICEF, in 2050, 40% of children under the age of five worldwide will live on the African continent. By the same date, 10% of global births will occur in Nigeria. However, there will be a downside: the population explosion will cause rural exodus and an urban-rural imbalance, threatening agriculture and therefore the continent's food supply.
A Sharp Rise in Energy Demand
Two out of three Africans still do not have access to modern energy sources. Global consumption was 22 MWh per capita in 2022, compared to 7 MWh per capita in Africa. In 2023, the African continent was responsible for only about 3.6% of global CO₂ emissions from fossil combustion, according to the . However, with its energy needs set to grow significantly due to economic growth, demographics, and urbanization, the question of its development model—will it be sustainable and low-carbon?—is becoming increasingly pressing.
A Continent Rich in Resources that are Essential to the Global Energy Transition
Africa has significant resources: according to estimates, it has 8% of the world's oil reserves, 7% of gas reserves, 4% of reserves, 10% of hydroelectric potential, and 17% of reserves. Its wind and solar patterns guarantee the development of wind and solar power.
According to experts, the African continent holds 40% of the world's gold reserves and 30% of its reserves of essential minerals: iron, copper, aluminum, platinum, chromium, lithium, and other rare metals that are increasingly indispensable for the development of and electric cars.
Persistent Challenges: Dependence on Raw Materials and Governance
However, an abundance of raw materials does not always translate into sustainable economic development. Price instability on international markets makes revenues from these resources highly volatile, which undermines public budgets and long-term planning. Furthermore, the revenues they generate can be a source of corruption and do not encourage economic diversification and investment in sectors with a promising future.
Finally, African resources have long been of interest to the major powers, first colonial powers and now countries such as China, which are looking for land and raw materials.
The challenge for African countries is therefore to strengthen their infrastructure, develop local industries, and invest in sustainable innovation in order to transform these natural resources into a real engine of development.
Leapfrog: Accelerated Development Thanks to Innovation
Many economists believe that African countries will benefit from a development model known as leapfrogging, which allows them to achieve advanced goals by skipping the intermediate stages that developed countries went through in the past.
One example is the telephony: the African continent did not go through a fixed-line telephone phase before experiencing an exceptional boom in mobile telephony (nearly 500 million users for 1.2 billion inhabitants). Decentralized solar energy production can make a powerful contribution to the electrification of Africa by limiting the need to build distribution networks to supply every village.
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