COP30 in Belém: What is the Outcome of the Fight Against Climate Change?
The 30th did not mark any major progress in global climate action. No grand plan for forests, no progress on the path to phasing out fossil fuels, no breakthrough in national plans to reduce CO2 emissions. But climate multilateralism is still alive despite the United States' withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement.
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COP30: Climate Multilateralism Preserved Despite Limited Ambitions
COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, disappointed many participants, who described the final declaration as “minimal” and “lacking in ambition.” But it did save the essentials ten years after the universal Paris Agreement: the maintenance of “climate multilateralism,” i.e., the acceptance by 194 countries to continue their concerted action.
Despite the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, decided by President Donald Trump, none of the countries present decided to jump ship. The main objective of Paris remains unchanged: to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to keep the average global temperature rise well below 2°C, or even 1.5°C if possible, compared to the beginning of the industrial era.
COP 31 will take place at the end of 2026 in Antalya, Turkey, with a major innovation: a Turkey-Australia co-presidency, which should highlight the small Pacific island countries. COP 32 will take place in Ethiopia, one of the least developed countries. For 2028, India, a rapidly developing demographic giant, has submitted its bid to host COP 33. The path forward is thus clearly marked.
Deforestation: Why COP30 Failed to Deliver on Its Promises for the Amazon?
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wanted to make the fight against deforestation one of the main themes of COP30. He hoped that this summit, held on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, would raise global awareness in a spectacular way. The rainforest, which is under serious threat from large-scale farming and mining, is in danger of losing its role as a “carbon sink” capable of storing CO2.
Despite support from nearly 90 countries, no binding commitments on deforestation were included in the final text.
The only consolation is that Brazil was able to launch its Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) program before the COP opened. The program has a fund to compensate countries that preserve their forest ecosystems. However, it remains outside the purview of the United Nations, and the initial funding commitments for the next ten years fall short of the amounts originally planned. Colombia will host a conference on this topic in April 2026.
Phasing Out Fossil fuels: a Roadmap Still Pending
Even though Brazil is the world's eighth largest oil producer, its president also had ambitions to revive the idea of a global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels.
He hoped to build on the small opening shown at COP28 in Dubai. The final text did not yet refer to a “phase-out” of fossil fuels ( , oil, and gas) but rather to a “transition away from fossil fuels.” Belém did not confirm this small step forward by refusing to agree to an operational timetable.
President Lula's plan ran up against the interests of oil- and gas-producing countries, as well as emerging countries that have a great need for energy to ensure their development. He could only announce Brazil's intention to prepare a draft roadmap to be examined next year during the preparatory meetings for the next COP.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Insufficient Commitments to Stay Below +1.5°C
The Paris Agreement reached at COP21 established a strong principle: rather than setting global emission reduction targets, which are generally not met, it was decided to call on each country to take voluntary action and assess for itself what it can do in terms of .
COP30 was supposed to be an opportunity to update and raise these “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs).
The results were disappointing! More than 70 countries failed to submit their contributions. Many waited until the eve of the COP opening. The European Union, usually at the forefront, was divided on the issue, with several member states, such as Italy, concerned about the impact of environmental measures on their industries. At the last minute, it submitted a draft that maintains the ultimate goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, but with an “indicative” target of 66–72% for 2035.
As the world's largest emitter, China gave its response while COP30 was underway... But with one positive point. For the past 18 months, its emissions have not increased, raising hopes that it will reach a “peak” in 2025, five years ahead of schedule. Going forward, it plans to reduce emissions by 7-10% by 2035 (compared to 1990 levels).
But overall, this remains far from sufficient. The sum of the contributions does not put us back on track for 1.5°C of warming. According to experts, with today's targets, we are more likely to see increases between +2.8°C and +3°C, which would be catastrophic for the planet.
Vulnerable Countries: a Helping Hand for Climate Change Adaptation
One recurring issue comes up at every COP: aid for the poorest countries, which are least responsible for the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere and are also the most vulnerable. COP29 in Baku (Azerbaijan) took a step forward by considering progressive financing of at least $300 billion per year by 2035.
COP30 has decided to triple this amount, but within this budget, aid for adaptation. The balance between mitigation measures (minimizing the rise in average temperature) and adaptation measures (responding to the negative effects of already observed) has been the subject of debate for several years. Some see adaptation as acceptance of the status quo, but the most vulnerable countries are eager for immediate action to repair the increasingly severe damage caused by extreme weather events. The tripling of aid is still vague, but it is in line with the demands of these countries. An interim meeting in Bonn in June 2026 will revisit the issue.
Citizen Mobilization: the Role of Civil Society and Businesses at COP30
On a more positive note, COP 30 saw renewed mobilization among civil society, businesses, and local elected officials. Nearly 45,000 people (excluding official delegates), including indigenous peoples from the Amazon, participated in the Belém summit, with a large parade of 200 boats on the Amazon estuary.
These civil society groups pushed for key issues to be added to the international agenda, such as combating climate misinformation, the impacts of climate change on health, protecting , and integrating the ocean into climate plans. The third United Nations Ocean Conference was held in Nice in June 2025.
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