The Energy Mix- Definition, Current Situation and Future Trends

To meet its energy needs, each country uses its available energy it in differing proportions. Since the 19th century, the energy sources used to meet global demand have been mostly fossil fuels. Nowadays, to continue developing while preserving the environment, humanity has to diversify its energy mix.

Each Country has its own Energy Resources

The term energy mix refers to the distribution, within a given geographical area, of the consumption of various energy sources (crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, and renewable energy).

For each region or country, energy mix composition depends on the following:

   • The availability of usable resources on its territory or the possibility of importing them

   • The extent and nature of energy needs to be met

   • The economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical context

   • The political choices resulting from the above

Energy mix composition varies for each country or region of the world.

For example, there are differences between the energy mix of the United States and France. These disparities can be seen when we compare their primary energy consumption (i.e. the energy that must be used to produce electricity). In 2008, nuclear energy consumed in the United States represented 8.5% of the primary energy spent there¹. In France in the same year, this resource provided one third of all primary energy consumed². The share of nuclear energy in the French energy mix is 4 times that of the United States!

This is due to historical factors. After the 1973 oil crisis, France invested heavily in nuclear to ensure energy independence, i.e. to limit its dependence on energy imports from other countries. Nowadays, this choice also meets the new environmental challenges. Nuclear energy has allowed France to substantially reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to electricity production. These emissions play a key role in global warming.

A Global Mix Dominated by Fossil Fuels

Humanity's energy needs keep increasing. Since the Industrial Revolution, societies' development has been largely based on the use of fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal). In 2007, over 80% of primary energy consumed worldwide came from fossil fuels, which rank first in the global energy mix³.

Over the last few decades, demographic growth and the rise of emerging countries (India and China) have increased energy demand and it is likely to continue. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy demand is set to rise 45% between 2006 and 2030⁴.

In this context, fossil fuel sources are precious because of their enormous energy potential. For example, burning a kilogram of heating oil provides almost twice as much heat as burning a kilogram of wood!

As oil becomes increasingly scarce, it will no longer be part of the energy mix in the decades to come.

False. Depleting oil resources are what are known as conventional reserves, which have been worked since 1860. However, current technologies can recover more hydrocarbons from existing deposits and can also extract hydrocarbons from new sites formerly deemed inaccessible (deep offshore reserves, oil sands and, oil shale). By optimizing refining methods, we can get more petroleum products from the same quantity of crude.

Furthermore, oil is indispensable is we are to meet the energy needs of the 21st century. In the medium term, no resource will be economically or techonologically ready to fully replace oil in the energy mix.

Global Energy Mix- What Does the Future Hold?

   • Widespread energy policies in response to the new environmental stakes (research funding, specific regulations, tax incentives to encourage consumers to use hybrid vehicles, etc.)

   • The pace at which non-fossil fuels are developed and distributed (each new technology takes about 20 years to become profitable and widespread in the construction and automobile industries- areas where turnover is low)

   • The discovery of new oil and gas deposits

   • Supply options (linked to the political context)

   • Energy pricing

IPCC and IEA experts take all these factors into account when building possible future scenarios for the changing energy mix. Apart from the distribution of different energy sources, these scenarios account for the amount of CO₂ emissions and resulting rising temperatures (because of the accelerating greenhouse effect). For example, the IEA has drawn up a highly ambitious scenario for the global energy mix in 2030, according to which the international community would set a maximum target of 2° temperature rise with a CO₂ content of 450 ppm by 2100. This energy mix would be broken down as follows:

   • Oil would provide 30% of primary energy consumed worldwide, compared to 34% in 2007

   • Natural gas would provide 20.5% compared to 20.9% in 2007

   • Coal would provide 16.6% compared to 26.5% in 2007

   • Nuclear energy would provide 9.5% compared to 5.9% in 2007

   • Renewable energy would provide 23.4% compared to 12.7% in 2007

In this scenario, consumers would use less oil and coal in favor of nuclear and renewable energy, which emits fewer greenhouse gases. This is called decarbonizing the energy mix.

[1] Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2008.
[2] Source: French Ministry of the environment, energy, sustainable development and the sea, Key energy statistics [in French] (2009 edition).
[3] Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics 2009.
[4] Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008.