Feature Report: Crude Oil and Fuel Prices

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A Brief History of Oil Prices

Oil prices have fluctuated considerably over the decades, particularly during the global crises of 1973, 1979 and 2008 and following the economic developments of 2014 and 2015. The price of crude has a significant impact on the global economy due to the dominant role this resource plays, both today and in the decades to come. 

Oil storage tanks in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam © PASCAL LAURENT / TOTAL

The price of a barrelUnit of volume measurement for crude oil that is equivalent to approximately 159 liters (0.159 cubic meters)... of crude oilOil that has not been refined. has for decades been as much a geopolitical metric as an economic one. It continues to be calculated based on a unit of measurement dating from the 19th century, i.e. the barrel (corresponding to about 159 liters), even though oil is now transported in bulk via pipelines, tankersVessel used to transport bulk liquids in huge tanks. The best-known tankers are oil tankers, which carry crude oil. and trains.

In fact, it is more accurate to talk about oil prices in the plural. This is because the prices set in the global markets, primarily in New York and London, are based on different benchmark or marker crude oils, especially BrentBrent is the name given to a relatively light crude oil made from a blend of crudes from 19 oil fields in the North Sea... (North Sea crude) for Europe and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for North America. These oils are each governed by their own laws of supply and demand, which means that their prices may evolve differently.

Oil will account for 27% of the global energy mixThe range of energy sources of a region. in 2035, down from 31% in 2011 but still the dominant source of energy. 

The First Oil Crises

From $100 to $30: The fall in price of Brent crude between the summer of 2014 and January 2016.

From 1860 to 1940, oil prices fluctuated in response to international events, rising during the First World War and falling during the Great Depression. From 1948 to 1970, they remained relatively low and stable until they were shaken by a series of oil crises or "oil shocks".

The first oil crisis got started in 1971 when the Bretton Woods international monetary system was abandoned. It intensified in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War, when Arab oil-producing nations placed an embargo on oil shipments to countries that supported Israel. Oil prices quadrupled within a year.

The Iranian revolution in 1978 and the Iran-Iraq war in 1980 triggered the second oil crisis, which led oil prices to double. 

2008 Price Volatility

Oil will account for 27% of the global energy mix in 2035, down from 31% in 2011 but still the dominant source of energy 

The third oil crisis began in 2003 when growing demand from China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies set in motion an upward price trend that accelerated suddenly in the first half of 2008 at the time of the global economic crisis. The price of Brent soared from $96 per barrel on January 2, 2008 to $144 on July 3, 2008. The repercussions on fuelFuel is any solid, liquid or gaseous substance or material that can be combined with an oxidant... prices were less dramatic (see Close-up : "How Costs and Taxes Determine Fuel Prices").

Oil prices then took a major tumble at the peak of the financial crisis. The monthly average crude oil price slid from $130 per barrel in July to $40 per barrel in December 2008. Starting in 2009, as oil-producing countries began reducing output to maintain their revenue levels, the average gradually climbed back up to $80. 

In 2010, the economic recovery brought with it the strongest growth in oil demand observed since 2004. This helped to drive prices up again. They climbed further in early 2011 in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings, with the markets fearing potential negative impacts on production capacity. On March 13, 2012, the price of Brent reached a new high of $128, before stabilizing at more than $100 in 20131.

The 2014-2015 Oil Price Decline and 2016 Recovery

Oil prices collapsed in the summer of 2014, falling below $50 per barrel at the beginning of 2015 despite rising world demand. The primary cause was excess supply, driven by shale oilRefers to liquid hydrocarbons extracted from oil shale (see definition) by heating, pyrolysis or hydrogenation. production in the United States. Saudi Arabia decided to defend its market share by maintaining OPECCreated in 1960, OPEC currently has 12 members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia...'s production levels in the hope of forcing U.S.  shale gasShale gas is found in deeply buried clayey sedimentary rock that is both the source rock and the reservoir for the gas... producers to reduce their output, creating a standoff. The price of Brent slipped below $30 a barrel in January 2016 to levels not seen since 2003, creating serious trouble for some oil-producing nations such as Venezuela, Algeria and Russia.

Oil prices began to recover in February 2016, reaching $50 per barrel in June 2016, primarily due to the decision of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia to freeze production. But uncertainties still remained in mid-2016.

The general trend toward lower prices has significantly undermined investment, which could threaten the availability of oil over the coming years and lead to an upward spiral in oil prices.

Future Uncertainties

Major oil price swings in recent decades underscore how difficult it is to make forecasts. Prices are sensitive to many factors, including geopolitical events, decisions by oil-exporting countries, technological innovations that reduce the cost of extraction and global economic cycles.

Various 20-year scenarios point to strong growth in global energy demand, the bulk of which will still be for oil, albeit to a lesser degree. According to the International Energy Agency's baseline New Policies scenario, primary energyAll energy sources that have not undergone any conversion process and remain in their natural state.. demand will rise to 17.4 billion tons of oil equivalentUnit of energy measurement corresponding to the energy produced by the combustion of a ton of oil... (Btoe) in 2035 from 13 billion in 2011. Oil will represent 27% versus 31% of the energy mix, natural gas 24% versus 21%, and coalCoal is ranked by its degree of transformation or maturity, increasing in carbon content from... four percentage points less than before. Demand for oil will increase to 4.66 Btoe in 2035 from 4.1 Btoe in 2011, based on this scenario.

 

 

Sources : 

(1) Follow oil prices (in French)