Global warming has serious consequences

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Global Warming Has Serious Consequences

Updated 3/11/2011, published online 11/29/2010

The melting of ice floes, the disappearance of some species, epidemics and economic recession - global warming could have serious consequences. However, individuals and policymakers are becoming more aware of these issues, which is encouraging.

Young people from over 40 countries demonstrate against global warming at the Cancun summit in Mexico (December 2010).

A Disrupted Climate

Rising temperatures can trigger a chain of other consequences for the climate, which scientists take as evidence of the warming currently taking place.

These include:

   • The retreat of glaciers;

   • The melting of ice floes;

   • Increased average ocean levels;

   • Changes in rainfall patterns that can lead to flooding and droughts;

   • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as hurricanes and cyclones;

   • Changes in the circulation of sea currents such as the Gulf Stream and the North-Atlantic drift, which could lead to a cooling in some regions, in particular in western Europe.

Some of the consequences of global warming, such as the melting of glaciers, are already visible.

Some of these changes, such as the melting of the glaciers in temperate regions, have already started. These will obviously have an impact on fauna and flora, with many species set to disappear as their natural habitat vanishes. The example of polar bears is often mentioned as their feeding habits are closely related to sea ice conditions.

Entire Populations Affected

Because climate change increases natural disasters, and changes rainfall patterns and crop yields, it affects the water and food supply and consequently poses a threat to public health. The actual effects are not the same throughout the world as they depend on the quality and performance of health systems. The most serious threats are primarily to developing countries, where malnutrition is already rife and health infrastructures are precarious.

Regions where diseases such as cholera and malaria are most prevalent could extend further.

Many people living in tropical regions could be particularly affected. This could lead to an influx of climate refugees if sea levels rise leading to flooding of certain islands or coastal regions.

Moreover, changes in lifestyle can sometimes take an unexpected turn, as with the Inuits of Kuujjuaq in northern Canada, whose mayor ordered air-conditioners in June 2006 when temperatures rose to 31°C!

A Disrupted Economy

It is very difficult to estimate the economic impact of global warming. According to economists, the cost varies from two to fifty euro per ton of carbon emitted.

According to other estimates, global warming could cost up to one percent of global GDP growth. Developing countries are the most exposed, but the risk also affects the farming, banking and insurance sectors in industrialized countries.

However, there is also room for optimism as economies could well adapt to the changes through the development of green technologies.

Global Awareness

Kyoto, Copenhagen, Cancun... Global warming is a worldwide issue, pushing governments to work together to combat a problem that affects all of us. It is also prompting increased awareness among individuals and policymakers of the impact of human activity on the environment.

Global warming and energy issues also lead to innovative technological solutions (carbon storage, hybrid or electric vehicles, low-energy buildings, hydrogen fuel cells, etc.).

Finally, this phenomenon also has positive, albeit localized, consequences:

   • A lower winter mortality rate in temperate regions;

   • Increased wood production in temperate regions;

   • Increased crop yields in temperate regions;

   • Increased water resources in some dry regions close to the tropics;

   • Falling energy consumption for heating purposes (partially offsetting the rise in energy consumed by air-conditioners).

Becoming aware of the reality of global warming and its consequences is the first step in implementing solutions, from changes in everyday behavior to international policies.

Adaptation across the board

Today we know that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions cannot be reduced fast enough to prevent a temperature rise. It is now necessary to implement adaptation strategies across the board to counter the impacts of climate change.

Unlike emissions reduction which primarily consists of international action targeting a limited number of industry sectors, adaptation concerns a vast number of mostly local actions affecting all sectors. By way of illustration, a health risk management program during severe heat waves could be considered as part of an adaptation strategy.

Take France's "Plan national d'adaptation au changement climatique¹" (National climate change adaptation program) which will take effect during the 2011-2015 period. It outlines a catalog of 80 initiatives supported by 230 measures and recommendations within several fields (especially biodiversity, health, and agriculture). This plan represents a €171 M budget adding to the €391 M already allocated for "Investissements d'Avenir" (Investments for the Future program)². Moreover, €500 M already finances several measures of the Drought prevention plan³ and the Flash flooding prevention plan⁴ (2011-2016).

Most of these initiatives will be implemented in 2011-2012 and will focus on 4 main points:

   • A reducing water consumption in all sectors (-20% by 2020);

   • Reinforcing systems to monitor immerging diseases (allergies, asthma);

   • Adapting the national planning policy (transportation, sea level, etc.);

   • Preventing forest fires.

Implementing this system is a first in Europe. It will be subject to yearly indicator follow-ups and will undergo a final evaluation in 2015.