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The Kyoto Protocol, the major international agreement on fighting climate change, expires in 2012. What will happen then? Last December, the Bali Conference began negotiations on how to tackle the problem after this date. Professor of Management and Co-Director of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Henry Jacoby reviews the situation.
What progress was made at the Bali Conference?
Henry Jacoby: The Bali Conference set up an ad hoc working group to negotiate how to tackle climate change post-2012. But the group includes representatives from nearly every country, so the process could be lengthy and complicated. In theory, the aim is to complete negotiations in late 2009, so that the decisions can be applied from 2012.
What has the Kyoto Protocol accomplished so far?
H. J.: The Kyoto Protocol was a major first in the history of mankind, and it would have been unrealistic to expect it to resolve every issue. But the Protocol has three weaknesses. First, it put the cart before the horse by setting reduction targets before even defining emissions. Second, U.S. negotiators approved these targets, knowing full well that the Senate—the U.S. legislative body—would not ratify them. U.S. participation is vital, since it is one of the world’s biggest emitters. And third, developing countries are not subject to binding emission reduction targets. That made sense when the process was starting out—industrialized countries generate the most pollution—but from now on all countries have to pledge to step up the fight against the greenhouse effect post-2012.
Kyoto sets mandatory targets for emissions reductions for individual countries. Was that the right thing to do?
H.J.: I’m not sure. There may be some countries that refuse to make this commitment to maintain their independence from international regulation. Maybe we could introduce less rigid targets or play on their fears of getting a “bad reputation” if they don’t do enough.
Technological progress plays a major role in tackling climate change. What are the priorities?
H. J.: In my opinion, there are two. The first concerns power generation. We have to work on carbon dioxide capture and sequestration, which would prevent this gas from being emitted to the atmosphere by thermal power plants. We also have to work on storing nuclear waste, even though nuclear facilities don’t emit greenhouse gases. The second is transportation: we have to continue to enhance vehicle design and operation, and develop biofuels and hybrid cars, which run partly on electricity.
What can consumers do?
H. J.: It would be extremely complicated to implement a protocol tailored to each of the planet’s 6 billion or so inhabitants. It’s up to individual countries to decide how ordinary citizens should contribute to emission reduction efforts. But the best way of making consumers more responsible is to push home the fact that pollution costs the community, and that cost is reflected in carbon prices. The principle is simple: “The user pays.”
Also read the article about The international conference in Bali in the Mag |